Ex-Tropical cyclone Tifanny is headed for south-eastern Australia

@thegoldensnapper storm clouds Dundee Beach NT 10JAN22

 

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will cause heavy rain, thunderstorms and thick clouds to spread across central and south-eastern Australia during the next week. 

Tropical Cyclone Tiffany made landfall over the NT’s eastern Top End as a category one cyclone on Wednesday.  

Since then, the system has weakened to a Tropical Low and caused heavy rain to spread across Top End and spread into WA’s Kimberley district. 

During the 72 hours to 9am on Friday, falls of around 100-200mm have been recorded across the NT’s Top End. 

Wadeye (Port Keats) received 107mm during the 24 hours to 9am, bringing its two-day total up to 153.2mm. This is more than one quarter of their average monthly rainfall at this time of year. 

Further east, a rain gauge near Katherine picked up 200mm during the three days ending at 9am on Friday. 

In WA, falls of around 70 to 100mm were observed near and south of Kununurra in the 24 to 9am Friday. 

On Friday morning, ex-Tropical Cyclone Tiffany was located over WA’s Kimberley district, where it was continuing to produce heavy rain and thunderstorms. 

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Image: Enhanced infrared/visible satellite image, showing rain and storm-bearing clouds near ex-Tropical Cyclone Tiffany on Friday morning. 

Tropical rain spreading south 

There is now good agreement between forecast models that the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Tiffany will move south in the next few days.  

This will drag tropical moisture across a large area of central, southern and eastern Australia between now and the end of next week, where it will produce widespread cloud, rain and thunderstorms. 

The southward-moving tropical air will also erode a hot air mass that is currently sitting over central Australia. This is likely to help suppress temperatures in parts of southern and eastern Australia next week. 

Between Friday and Sunday, rain will spread south from the Kimberley and affect the North Interior of WA and the NT’s western inland. 

As you can see on the map below, daily rainfall totals of 100-150mm are forecast across this region, with isolated falls up to 300mm possible. 

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Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 72 hours ending at 11pm AEDT on Sunday, January 16, 2022, according to the ECMEF-HRES model. 

This tropical moisture is expected to continue moving south next week, where it will link up with a trough and drag copious moisture across parts of SA, NSW, VIC, the ACT and QLD.   

This moisture-laden low pressure trough may become near-stationary from the middle of next week, leading to several days of cloud, rain and storms across eastern and southeastern Australia. 

While there is still some uncertainty around how this system will play out as it moves south, there is a good chance that a broad area of southern, central and eastern Australia will receive heavyn rain over the next week. 

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Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the next week (7 days ending on Thursday, January 20), according to the ECMWF-HRES model. 

The cloud produced by this tropical airmass is likely to reduce solar output across south-eastern Australia for several days next week. 

The cloud is also expected to suppress daytime temperatures in the region next week, while humidity may increase as the tropical moisture moves south. Melbourne and Adelaide’s maximum temperatures early next week are predicted to be 4-6 degrees below the January average. For more information on Weatherzone’s temperature, rainfall, thunderstorm and solar forecasting, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au. 

Feature image:@thegoldensnapper