Tropical cyclone Seroja is currently located well to the north-northwest of Broome and unlikely to impact Western Australia during the next few days (right track figure 1). However, the cyclone is forecast to swing south later this week, tracking parallel to the coast near Exmouth and Carnarvon (figure 1).
At the same time, a tropical low has also formed near Christmas Island and its interaction with Seroja will play a huge role in Seroja’s movement (left track in figure 1).
Figure 1: BOM tropical cyclone Seroja and low forecast issued on the 6th of April at 9am WST and satellite imagery.
There is a huge amount of uncertainty in the track of the cyclone and whether it will impact the Western Australia. Some models show the cyclone approaching the Western Australian coastline later this week into the next, while others keep the cyclone offshore.
With a cyclone and a low in the mix, weekly rainfall totals of 40-70mm are forecast for western WA, with isolated falls above 90mm (figure 2). The rainfall totals are highly dependent on the movement of the cyclone. Severe storms may also bring very heavy rainfall, particularly for areas to the north and east of the tropical low/cyclone.
Figure 2: The Australian model’s 7-day accumulated rainfall forecast up to Tuesday 13th April.
If the cyclone was to come near or cross the coast, heavy rainfall and damaging or destructive winds are all possible, beginning on the coastal strip first before extending inland.
Given the uncertainty in the track of the cyclone, please ensure you keep up to date with our forecasts and warnings. For more information on our services, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.